This is true in the US and in other countries with high coronavirus case counts.
With no certain end to the pandemic yet in sight, coronavirus cases continue to rise. At the time of this writing there have been more than 113 million cases of the virus reported worldwide and 2.5 million deaths. Sadly, more of each are being added every day.
While the numbers seem high, however, a new study has shown we are actually undercounting coronavirus cases worldwide, and to a great degree. It is a fact that the number of cases of COVID-19 in the US, as well as in the fifty countries with the most cases of the virus worldwide, could actually be many times higher than present public health counts allow for.
A computational model using a machine-learning framework developed by researchers at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center is behind the calculations. This model used reported test results as well as death rates to estimate the true number of COVID-19 infections. It also drew upon information from previously published pandemic parameters.
Much, Much Higher
Amazingly, researchers found the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in nine out of fifty of the countries examined could very likely be a minimum of five times higher than the publicly confirmed cases now on record.
Why are our numbers so skewed? A few things come into play. First, people who are asymptomatic are much less likely to be tested for the virus. Because of this, they can easily go undetected and stay off the record. Consequently, these infections don’t end up in the total daily case numbers. In addition, not everyone who falls sick with symptoms of COVID-19 gets tested. This leaves even some of those with symptoms out of the running totals.
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How accurate is all this, though? It looks like the study does add up. Researchers involved had findings that line up with those of other official organizations. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for example, estimates only about 1 in 4 COVID-19 symptomatic illnesses in the US were reported during the majority of 2020 (February to December). It also estimates that just 1 in 4.6 total COVID-19 infections were reported during this time in the US. So, America’s real coronavirus totals are likely actually much higher than you likely hear of in the news.
The CDC estimates that from February through December 2020 Americans actually probably suffered from around 83.1 million coronavirus infections. In comparison, at the time of this writing in February 2021, the US is officially reporting a total of 28 million confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus. This is throughout the entire pandemic to date.
Thankfully, while this sounds quite dismal, it doesn’t all add up to bad news.
Numbers Needed for Herd Immunity
Herd immunity: this is something we are seeking as soon as possible. So, if we have infection rates that are much higher than we are aware of, does this mean we are much closer? Possibly. Researchers in this study found that in the US, the UK, and Belgium (among other countries), about 20% of the population has likely already been infected with COVID-19. Each disease has a different threshold for herd immunity within a population, of course. For example, polio needs about 80% of people to have been infected or vaccinated, and the measles, 95%. The threshold for COVID-19 is unknown but is estimated to be somewhere between 70% and 90%. If we already have larger numbers of people who hold antibodies to the virus than we are aware of, we could be that much closer to the end of the pandemic. Sort of.
The trouble is, 20% is a long way off from 90%. How can we reach the threshold? Catching COVID-19 is one way to get there, but that’s dangerous. Getting a coronavirus vaccine is often the answer. Not only does this help you, moreover, it can also help out those who cannot receive the vaccine because their immune system can’t tolerate it. This can include people who suffer from severe allergies. Those who are undergoing things like cancer treatments can also fall among the ‘unvaccinatable’.
If you can get the coronavirus vaccine, you are helping out others. In the meantime, stay safe and continue to practice pandemic health measures like wearing a mask, washing your hands, and social distancing.
photo credits: Cryptographer/Shutterstock.com
