It could happen at any day and it’s predict there’s a good chance another pandemic could happen within the next 25 years.
The current coronavirus pandemic seems to be dragging on forever. Many had hoped that by this point, with people vaccinated in North America, that at least here, the virus would begin to subside. But that hasn’t happened. Not enough people are fully vaccinated and the virus causing COVID-19 may be somewhat different than we initially hoped.
How long were past pandemics and how does ours compare? When will this pandemic end and the next one take place? Here’s a general glance.
How the Spanish Flu Pandemic Stacks Up Against the Coronavirus Pandemic
Historical accounts of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic indicate that the trouble began in the spring of 1918. This flu represents the most severe pandemic in recent recorded history. An ultra-strong version of the flu virus took hold amongst military personnel in Europe, first. This pandemic didn’t subside until about April 1920. By that point, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), at least 50 million people had died from this flu worldwide, 675,000 of those in the US.
Related: All About the New COVID-19 Mutation, Omicron
In comparison, the US is currently home to about 794,000 deaths in just under two years, attributable to the novel coronavirus. The population of the country is more than three times larger, of course, than it was in 1918. Worldwide, COVID-19 has taken about 5.29 million lives, just a pittance compared to the 50 million of 1918.
So, in some ways, our current pandemic pales in comparison. The question, however, is will ours continue on long enough to take the lives of just as many people? Will the coronavirus pandemic simply drag on to ten times longer than that of the Spanish flu in order to get its victims? It’s hard to say.
When Will the Pandemic End?
It’s difficult to imagine living with the current health measures for the next eighteen years, as suggested above. That sounds simply ridiculous as soon as it’s written. But finding an end to our troubles is difficult.
The amazingly well-read Bill Gates recently predicted that the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic will pass us sometime in 2022. This is despite the presence of the Omicron variant. This is a bit of good news. The World Health Organization (WHO) says we are in the middle of the pandemic right now. If vaccination continues as it’s been going, the WHO predicts that sometime near the end of 2022 we will see a significant change in the patterns of transmission of COVID-19 worldwide. It’s by this time that global rollout of coronavirus vaccines will truly be under way. Since we really all are in this together, we all must wait. Presently, more than half of the world remains not fully vaccinated.
When Experts Expect the Next Pandemic to Hit
The Center for Global Development (CGD), a non-profit think tank based in Washington D.C, met last summer to discuss how the world can best prepare for the next pandemic before it hits. Part of that process involved modeling the future possibilities based on historical data. It was found that pandemics may very well cease to be once-in-a-lifetime events. They could go on to happen more frequently. It was estimated that there is a 47%-57% chance of another global pandemic hitting us within the next 25 years.
The researchers’ analysis looked at the frequency of epidemics- the spread of a particular disease within a community or country-and their geographic locations. This analysis showed that, unfortunately, the frequency and seriousness of infectious diseases spilling over from wildlife to humans (zoonotic) is increasing globally.
Up to 75% of newly emerging diseases are zoonotic, or come from animals to humans, according to the BBC. While it seems unlikely, some experts say the next pandemic could actually hit us tomorrow. Hopefully this won’t happen and the world won’t be thrown into the realm of a double-pandemic. Experts say it’s key that we invest in better public health infrastructure as well as reliable data sourcing. Medical countermeasures, and disease surveillance also needs more funding.
For more on emerging diseases and global risk, watch the BBC’s 9 minute video, The Next Pandemic: What Will It Be?
