They can potentially make a small dent in numbers but only a strict lockdown will likely make a big difference.
Coronavirus curfews: this is something that many state and municipal leaders across the world have been looking to as a way to curtail the rampant spread of COVID-19. Some curfews are more serious than others, of course. One thing remains the same, however: unfortunately, no one really knows if they work.
Why are coronavirus curfews so hard to measure? One of the major reasons is the fact that everything is happening all at once. When curfews are imposed in certain areas or cities, as Dr. Helen Boucher, an infectious disease specialist at Tufts Medical Center pointed out to the New York Times, it is often the case that other public health measures are being implemented, simultaneously. People are also being asked, (or ordered), to do other things. We must wear a mask and adjust our behavior by staying socially distanced, and use hand sanitizer and soap frequently, AND stay at home in the evening. If case numbers drop, what made the big difference? Was it a combination of factors, or one?
We don’t have the chance to test these things out when applying curfews to real life. There are a few things that are almost-certainties, even if not scientific ones, however.
What Likely Works
Obviously, strict COVID-19 lockdowns will likely do well to slow the spread of the virus. In Wuhan, the suspected origins of the coronavirus pandemic, the first lockdown did this. It allowed just one person per household outside the home to get food just once a week. Amazingly, this rule lasted for three months. The result? By mid-March, China reported having no new cases of COVID-19.
It really is impossible to imagine such stringent measures being implemented in places like the US without a civil war erupting, however. It is also somewhat difficult to know if China was reporting its cases of COVID-19 honestly. Did they really come to a halt? It’s hard to know. Such a severe lockdown could definitely cause numbers to drop, however, and likely does work quite well.
What Probably Doesn’t Do Much
On the flip side, some methods probably don’t have much of an effect at all on the number of people continuing to be infected with COVID-19. Some curfews appear to be so light in nature they are truly frivolous. The measures being taken in Miami-Dade county, Florida, are one example of this. At the time of this writing, this county has a curfew in place lasting from, you got it, midnight to 6 a.m.
Really? Yes, just midnight to 6 a.m. While this probably keeps some people from wandering around town for too long, surely the virus is still spreading with ease during the daytime and evening hours. Floridians and their visitors may like to party but no doubt, the majority of people are already at home and asleep during this curfew.
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Who else has what looks like ineffective measures in place? California is implementing curfews and stay-at-home orders in many of its counties but only between 10pm and 5 a.m. New York is closing all its bars, restaurants, and gyms by 10 pm as well, but keeping them open during dinner hours, when they could be busiest.
Massachusetts, Colorado, Ohio, and Maryland have curfews taking place, some barring residents from being outside at all after 10 p.m except to go to work or school, but nothing is prohibited earlier.
It is true these curfews and restrictions could reduce case numbers to some degree. It is difficult to see how they will really save many more lives however when, for most of the day, things are still operating as usual.
Curfew Pros:
Let’s consider all sides. Having a COVID-19 curfew in place can do some good, of course. In places where numbers are really high, a curfew can be a compromise. Businesses get to remain open during daylight and evening hours, and the economy can trickle along, although somewhat more slowly. And there are other benefits. In areas where people are very reluctant to wear face masks, a curfew can be a last resort to slow the virus down and it can lead the public to take the whole pandemic more seriously. Telling people they need to be off the streets sends a message from government without resorting to a total lockdown.
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Finally, late night curfews can also end up targeting certain groups. Those who have some of the highest infection rates are people aged 20 to 50. This group is also the most likely to be out late at night. If people are drinking alcohol, they may be less likely to stay within their own group, as they should, at the bar or restaurant after having a few drinks. It is true that implementing a curfew can help stop this risky viral late-night behavior.
Curfew Cons:
But curfews could also make things worse. What happens when you tell the same amount of people they now need to visit the same number of stores, bars, and restaurants but in a reduced number of hours? Unfortunately and inevitably, people will become more condensed in narrower time frames. In this way, while curfews can do some good, they can also actually potentially drive numbers up.
There is also the risk that people will continue gathering for after hours drinks and socializing. They will just do it in someone’s home instead. A curfew could encourage over-crowding in private spaces, something that could be prevented by having establishments stay open.
What can we conclude? According to William Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, having a curfew that cuts dining by just an hour or so isn’t like to do much. It won’t have much of an impact on numbers. Hanage suggests that indoor dining be put on hold altogether. Only outdoor spaces and takeout should be allowed. What about other establishments like bookstores and malls? Right now, it’s hard to say, but we should probably curtail their hours as well.
What we do know is this: it is next to impossible to find a solution to the pandemic that involves curbing the spread of the virus while still fostering the health of the economy. A vaccine does seem like our only answer at this time, and thankfully, it is on its way. Hopefully enough people will choose to be immunized against COVID-19 and we can all move forward, together and leave curfews behind in our dust.
photo credits: d_odin/Shutterstock.com
